Mashemeji Derby Preview: Gor Mahia vs. AFC Leopards
Date: Monday, June 2, 2025
Time: 3:00 PM EAT
Venue: Raila Odinga Stadium, Homa Bay
Competition: FKF Premier League 2024/2025
Match Preview
With no Nairobi venues available, Gor Mahia will host arch-rivals AFC Leopards at the Raila Odinga Stadium in Homabay for the latest chapter of the Mashemeji Derby in the Kenyan Premier League. Here’s our take on what to expect.
Gor Mahia, the defending champions, are struggling to keep their title hopes alive, sitting third in the standings, seven points behind leaders Police with only three games left. Their recent form has been shaky, with no wins in their last two league matches—a 2-1 defeat to Nairobi City Stars followed by a goalless draw against Muranga SEAL.
AFC Leopards have a golden opportunity to derail their rivals’ title aspirations. A victory here could effectively end Gor’s chances of retaining the crown. Leopards are in decent form, unbeaten in their last five matches, though three of those were draws. Facing a hostile crowd, they’ll need to stay focused and deliver on the pitch.
Historically, this fixture has been tough for Leopards, with just one win in their last 20 clashes against Gor Mahia. Their away form doesn’t inspire much confidence either, with four consecutive road games without a victory. Can they defy the odds this time? Stay tuned for our prediction.
Prediction
The Mashemeji Derby is historically low-scoring, with the last four matches producing under 2.5 goals and both teams failing to score in the same game. Gor Mahia’s recent dominance and home advantage at Kenyatta Stadium tilt the scales in their favor, but Leopards’ defensive resilience and Ambani’s derby record make them a tough opponent. Expect a cagey affair with few clear chances.
Score Prediction: Gor Mahia 1-0 AFC Leopards
Key Moment: A second-half goal from a set-piece or a moment of brilliance from Odhiambo could settle the tie.
Betting Tips
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Under 2.5 Goals: Odds 1.65 (recent derbies have been low-scoring).
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Gor Mahia to Win: Odds 1.80 (based on their 64.91% implied win probability).
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Both Teams to Score - No: Odds 1.85 (no both teams scoring in the last 4 matches).